Hop Notes 20: 2024 USDA National Hop Report.
Expert analysis to help you make better hop decisions.
Edited 1/20/25 for clarity.
Reviewing the 2024 USDA National Hop Report.
The 2024 USDA National Hop Report is out (linked here). Here are 4 highlights and a look at the current structure of the US hop market.
1. More acreage cuts.
Overall US acreage declined 16% to 44,793in 2024. This following a 10% acreage decline in 2023. Once again these cuts were not made equitably. For a second year in a row, ID and OR growers faced the largest cuts by acreage share alongside the steepest cuts from very large private hop portfolios.
Idaho went from 8,645 acres to 5,797, a loss of 2,848. A drop of 34% year over year and a drop of 35% since 2022.
And a 34% cut of private varieties year over year, and a 40% cut since 2022.
Oregon went from 6,822 acres to 5,635, a loss of 1,187. A drop of 17% year over year and a drop of 24% since 2022.
And a 19% cut of private varieties year over year, and a 31% cut since 2022.
Washington went from 38,851 acres to 33,361, a loss of 5,490 acres. A drop of 14% year over year and a drop of 16% since 2022.
And a 16% cut of private varieties year over year, and a 19% cut since 2022.
Washington’s one year total acreage decline in 2024 is almost equal to the total remaining acres in ID or OR.
Acreage and power continues to accumulate in the Yakima Valley. Before you hard-nosed folks who don’t care that these cuts are not equitable - this will impact you someday too. Too many eggs (going by acreage percentage, 75%, 9 of a carton of 12 eggs) now sit in the Yakima Valley Basket, increasing the impact of any negative weather, climate, labor or other disruption along that roughly 50 mile run of interstate 82.
I believe acreage cuts will continue next year. But maybe not as severe, perhaps another 10%. And I still think it’s possible the US could fall to ~35,000 acres, a mark the hop industry crossed a decade ago in response to the craft beer boom.
Lets do the math. (This math is full of assumptions based on my best estimates, there is no official 3rd party data on US hop consumption). This year’s annual production of 87.1 million pounds is below the rough annual consumption estimate of 100 million pounds and so eats into roughly 13 million of the outstanding estimated 40 million excess pounds. So if we assume all these numbers are accurate that means there are about 27 million extra pounds of hops out there still.
Two-ish more years of 87 million pound harvests would complete the balance and maybe lead the industry to a point where new acres could be needed. Unfortunately, this 87 million pound harvest is partly due to an off-year of production in Yakima, home of 75% of the US hop crop. A better year in Yakima and this 16% acreage cut may not have made for much of a supply deficit at all. This is partly why I expect more cuts are coming.
2. Updated Endangered Hops List.
Here are hops that have lost enough acres in recent acreage reports to be on my Endangered Hops List. Hops on this list are trending in the wrong direction, and either have been for many years or very steep reductions in fewer years.
If these hops are some you love, be sure to contract with your suppliers to send your demand signal, however small, that this variety is valuable to you.
To some extent, all public and independently-farmer-owned varieties belong on this list. In a market downturn this intense, industry players circle the wagons and focus on their own portfolios of varieties. Why sell a pound of Cascade or El Dorado® when you could sell a pound of Eric’s Hop Company’s ABC-123 hop? More on that below.
Once a variety is out of the ground there can be significant inertia to planting it again, often requiring a large demand signal to reach farmers and decision makers to re-plant.
Cashmere: down to 140 acres from 349 last year. I assume Cashmere is on contract-life-support and once those contracts come off the books she may be outta here.
Comet: down to 159 from 437 in 2023. Again, Comet acres have got to be mainly contract-based and when those are up… see above.
Mt.Hood and Mt.Rainer: these original lager-style American hops have both dropped from reported acres to no-reported acres in WA and only 142 Mt.Hood reported from Oregon. These varieties are far past their hay day but still, it’s sad to watch these storied varieties fade. Contract these if you like them.
Sabro™️: stayed even at about 200 acres from 2023. Private varieties, especially in the HBC portfolio, have a significant advantage in market support compared to flagging public varieties. Still, contract if you like these.
Talus™️: like Sabro™ Talus™ stayed at 2023 levels of about 148 acres.
Triumph: for a second year in a row Triumph did not have any acres on the crop report. USDA does not report numbers of acres if they could identify a specific farm, this means Triumph is probably still in the ground, but on end-of-life-support. We are probably approaching a future where the only source of Triumph will be from non-PNW area growers (I am particularly fond of some lots of NY-grown Triumph).
3. Control of the US hop crop continues to be predominantly private.
Total privately controlled acres increased slightly to 63% in 2024. Total acres planted in public varieties decreased slightly to 36%. This roughly 65/35 split has been stable since 2022 following the dramatic rise of private acres from ~2014 to 2022.
When looking at acreage ownership it’s important to look more closely at the aroma portion of the market. The alpha market is it’s own beast that balances on a global scale and is a heavily commodified market market - ie: it doesn’t really represent brewer's preferences in the same way the much more subjective and specialized aroma market does.
Private-public split in the aroma market looks quite a bit different. From the 2024 report I mark ~29,000 acres of aroma hops, 8,800 in public, 20,200 in private for a 70/30% private-public split in the aroma market. When we remove the influence of the alpha market we see the market is even more slanted towards private acres.
In the 2024 report acres controlled by the Haas and Yakima Chief Hops networks of companies (including HBC, YCR) made up 40% of total US acreage. At 17,558 acres of control their control is greater than all other private variety acreage (9,995 other private acres) and greater than all public variety acreage (15,946 public acres). Add in Steiner, a much smaller little-brother, who controls approximately 3,226 acres, the big three groups together (Haas, YCH, and Steiner and affiliated entities) control 47% of the US hop acreage.
4. A concentrated US hop market is bad for you and me.
The structure of the US hop market has been heading in this direction for a decade or so. The rise of craft beer created what I’ll call “The Golden Era” for US hops (~2014-2022). In that 8-ish year span US acres shifted from 80%+ public to ~65% private, dramatically changing the structure and power dynamics of the US hop market. Over the last two years of uncertainty, change, and contraction the ownership share remained at about that 65/35 split. The current acre share of private acres and small number of groups in control of the majority of those private acres appears to me to be the new normal.
This level of concentration demands more conversation and coverage in our industry. Just three groups control 47% of the US hop acreage. Brewers (and farmers) lose as competition in hops decreases.
Brewers had been price makers, and with public and smaller private and independent farmer owned hops, they still are to a great extent. In this type of arrangement, you pay more or less what brewers like you are willing to pay.
In the case of varieties from very large private owner portfolios the owners control much of the market dynamics. In this type of arrangement, brewers become price takers. You pay more or less what they want you to pay.
Sound too kooky? Pretend Eric’s Hop Company owns a bunch of hop varieties. This portfolio of varieties tallies up to ~40% of the total acreage of US hops. Eric’s Hop Company can squeeze farmers with supply agreements. Then Eric’s Hop Company can turn around and squeeze brewers by managing pricing and availability or capturing brewers with a tsunami of marketing spend.
Here’s a happening-right-now example of the next target for major private players; so-called Cascade and Centennial ‘replacements’.
The aroma hop market is already 70/30 private/public. And over a third of public aroma acres are in Cascade and Centennial. If you are Eric’s Hop Company looking to grow your acreage share (market power) and profit, Cascade and Centennial acres are targets number 1 and 2 to try and bring into your portfolio.
The largest private breeding companies have started marketing various of their lines as replacements for either Cascade or Centennial. I would be wary of these pitches if I were a brewer. First of all because none of them that I have smelled are clear replacements for either variety and secondly, because this is a wildly self-serving sales pitch. (1/20/25 edit for expanded clarity): CAS and CEN acres are the biggest opportunities for private hop companies to expand their control and grow their profit. It’s completely logical for a private entity to want to grow itself and these two varieties are the clearest targets in the aroma market.
The 2024 USDA National Hop Report points to continued market concentration. Where does that leave us?
It is a sign of a weakening industry that hop market concentration is not discussed more at our conferences or in our trade publications. Most brewers are going to be losers in a more concentrated hop future, paying higher prices for one of their most important ingredients. Yet most brewers have no idea this is the state of affairs. Those who do know intentionally buy public hops, intentionally buy independent-farmer-owned hop varieties, and support independent hop sellers and organizations like the Hop Research Council and the Hop Quality Group. But they are mostly quiet about it.
My sense is many of the brewers, trade organizations, and publishers who do understand what is at stake have done some calculus and determined that taking a public stand on this issue has too many downsides. Things aren’t rosy for craft beer as it is, so why make more issues for yourself by wading into this hop situation? Unfortunately, ignoring this challenge will not make it better.
First things first, you and I can make choices right now to improve competition in our hop market.
We can buy public and independent-farmer-owned varieties.
We can buy direct from farmers.
We can buy from a variety of hop suppliers.
We can buy Idaho or Oregon grown lots.
We can make hop purchasing decisions that reflect our values of solidarity with fellow small businesses, supporting competition, and caring about diversity.
Bigger picture it will take considerable leadership from industry groups, public displays of affection from influential brewers, and a long-term, concerted effort from all of us to maintain a healthy level of competition in the US hop market.
More hop content:
Hop Queries 8.08 includes coverage of the 2024 USDA National Hop Report. And a great highlight of Dr. Pattie Aron’s great article in BYO (linked in Hop Queries 8.08).
Speaking of BYO - Drew Jackson has a nice round up of various new hop varieties here. On that note, Stan Hieronymus also had a great piece on new hop varieties for the New Brewer.
Here’s non-industry coverage of the Oregon hop acreage losses from Oregon Public Radio.
Conference travel season is here. I literally love talking hops with you, say hey if you’re at any of these.
Colorado: Colorado Craft Brewers Summit, January 23rd and 24th. I’ll be speaking about hop analysis techniques and exhibiting with a delightful selection of beers highlighting independent-farmer-owned hops.
Ontario: MBAA District Ontario Technical Conference 2025, January 29 - 31. I’ll be speaking about sustainability and hops and again exhibiting with a delightful beer and highlighting independent-farmer-owned hops.
New York: New York State Brewers Conference 2025, March 19 - 21. I’ll be chilling with my friends at The Hop Guild and slanging public and independent-farmer-owned hops.
Minnesota: MN Brewers Conference 2025, April 11th. I’ll be exhibiting with independent-farmer-owned hops. Maybe talking about stuff too.
Indianapolis - CBC: Craft Brewers Conference 2025, April 28 - May 1. Find me walking the trade floor or hanging out at the hop talks.
Thanks for reading Hop Notes 20. I hope you enjoyed it. If you did, please consider subscribing or forwarding it to a friend.
That’s all for now. If you have topics you’d like to read about in Hop Notes my inbox is open 24/7: ericsannerud@gmail.com.
Thanks for your insights. Brewer here...are public hops more expensive generally? Did not experience any price reduction in hops in 2024, and yet I've heard the market is in excess...