Hop Notes 10: 2024 Predictions Plus Top Hops and Hoppy Beers of 2023.
Expert analysis to help you make better hop decisions.
Thank you for reading Hop Notes in 2023. Your readership means so much to me <3. - Eric
‘Tis the season for prediction content. So here are three takes I have for 2024. Below that I’ve got the scoreboard review of my 5 takes for 2023. Then the top 3 hops I rubbed in 2023 and my 3 favorite hoppy beers I enjoyed in 2023!
Take One: More Cuts Are Coming.
After a net loss of ~5,500 acres in 2023 (-9K acres of aroma, plus ~4K acres of alpha), I still expect US Hop acreage to decrease again next year. Maybe not as much. Certainly we’ll see more acreage shifts in response to changing market dynamics. Will American acreage lean more into the alpha market? Probably. Will we see less Citra®️ again? Probably.
The hop market is out of balance. Getting back into balance is the goal now. The question is how will that journey to balance look? The intention right now amongst the largest industry players seems to be to execute a ‘soft landing’ where excess inventory is reduced by decreasing new additions to inventories and inventing new hop products to extend the viable life on old inventory. Plus some market dumping overseas and contract flipping with domestic breweries. Stay tuned for how that strategy plays out. We’ve entered an uncharacteristically uncertain time in the hop market.
Take Two: New Variety (And New Branded Hop Product) Releases Will Continue Until Morale Improves.
You thought you got too many new hop announcement emails last year. It’s not going to get better. In fact, with the added hubbub around advanced hop products, it’s going to get worse. You’ll now be juggling brand name hops against brand name hop products - many of which are perfectly interchangeable with one another! How helpful!
Keep your head. Approach new products or varieties with a measured skepticism. You should build out a standardized approach in your brewery to testing new products and varieties - this will help you make sense of the noise while keeping yourself open to discover something new and interesting.
Take Three: Sustainability Messaging Will Get Louder.
Sustainability signaling from hop suppliers is through the roof. I think you’ll get more and more of it this year. For now, the message is very much focused on a variety’s agronomic efficiency. IE: Variety 123 has a higher yield, perhaps with less input, than a similar hop so therefore Variety 123 is sustainable. Keep that in mind when you see sustainability stories. What I am interested to see is when will brewer purchasing catch up?
At the front door of most breweries and featured prominently in most breweries social feeds, you’ll find statements of their values. When will those values come to the back door and ingredient sourcing? I feel that there are a lot of consumer groups who can see through cheap virtue signaling and searching for brands who can show that they really live their values.
My sense is a lot of this sustainability messaging is being pushed to brewers, not pulled by brewer demand. If or when that balance shifts and brewers start pulling for sustainable or similar product qualities, expect marketers to put even more effort behind these messages.
2023 Predictions Check-In.
Take One: More New Hop Varieties will be released
Correct!
There is no official counter of this, but by my count I saw 15 new varieties announced this calendar year. Good luck everyone.
Take Two: Hop stocks continue to be high, a supply-side adjustment is coming.
Correct!
There indeed, was, a significant cut in hop production acreage in the US.
Take Three: Vista will break the barrier and make it onto the named varieties list of the USDA Hop Report in 2023.
TBD. (But probably not correct).
The 2023 USDA Hop Crop Report has not been released as of this writing, but I do not think Vista is going to make it onto the named variety list.
Take Four: Waylon Jennings said it first; “Citra®️ is still the king”.
Correct!
At least for now. If I’m right and even more acreage cuts are coming this year, and if the targets of the cuts mirror the targets from last year, Citra®️ may lose the king seat to high-alpha, public hop CTZ in the next few years.
Take Five: Advanced hop products will continue to increase market share.
TBD. (But probably correct).
Again, waiting on the Brewer Association’s Hop Usage Survey for 2023, which has not been released yet. But all signs that I’ve seen point to this category’s share of the hop market continuing to grow.
Looking like at 4 outta 5 correct! Not bad.
My Top 3 Hops of 2023.
New York grown Triumph from The Hop Guild
Full and bright, lush experience of stone fruit and citrus peel. A beautiful and honestly sort-of surprising expression from Triumph, a hop that has flown under the radar since release. This is a good example for adapting our mindsets when it comes to hops - greatness can come from surprising places and varieties!
HRC-003 from The Elite Line Experimental Public Hop Breeding Program
“Wow” - most brewers when they rip their first bag of HRC-003. Punchy, sweet and juicy fruits. Bright, clean and sweet. Very peachy. I’ve been lucky enough to share this hop, amongst others from that program, with brewers across the country. It’s a standout.
Massachusetts grown Cascade from Four Star Farms
Never have I ever had such lemon-forward Cascade. Lemon juice, lemon peel, backed up by semi-sweet fruit punch. Bright and clean. Plus oils above 2! These Cascades aren’t what you would expect but perhaps that makes them all the more enticing.
My Top 3 Hoppy Beers of 2023.
Fracture Brewing Brews for New Avenues Pale Ale.
Vista, El Dorado enriched pellets, and Cashmere enriched pellets. 5.2%. Just a damn pale ale. A good cause. These are the ingredients that made the most memorable and enjoyable hoppy beer experience for me in 2023. The aroma and flavor that this combination and usage of these three hops created was unlike anything else in the year. Full nose, juicy, fruity and pleasant flavor. Enough hoppy resin slick on the finish to remind you hops are not just fruit stand-ins. Delicious.
Fort George Fresh Hop IPA featuring fresh Centennial from Crosby Hops.
Featuring fresh Centennial hops from Crosby Hops, I drank this at Top Wire, the Crosby Hops bar located in their hop fields. Maybe it was the location. Maybe it was the crew I was with. But this beer stands out in my mind amongst all the freshies of the year.
Hop Butcher For The World Sweet Home IPA.
Citra, El Dorado and Motueka sing in the classic Hop Butcher almost-too-sweet and smooth hazy IPA style. Both a strong nose and full, nuanced flavor put this hazy IPA beyond the reach of the ho-hum daily fare.
Honorable mentions:
Northbound Smokehouse Cascade Cup Pale Ale
Headflyer Wicked Slap Shot Cold IPA
Dual Citizen Oat-Cha Know Pale ale
More hop content:
From Myth to History: So you probably have heard the now mythic-level story about how macro brands funded then rejected the work to create Cascade - but how much do you know all the fun details? Here are the details.
Respect The Name: Dr. Al Haunold. Those of us not brought up in the hop growing regions of the PNW or who got into craft beer later than the 2000s, probably never heard of Dr. Haunold. Here’s a great snap shot of his importance to every single IPA you’ve ever had.
Meet Alora! Hopsteiner’s experimental HS17701 is now Alora. This hop has always been exciting for me due to it’s wild oil profile (62% of it’s oils are out of the normal categories of hops) and high amount of bound 3MH thiols.
Thanks for reading Hop Notes 10. I hope you enjoyed it. If you did, please consider subscribing or forwarding it to a friend.
That’s all for now. If you have topics you’d like to read about in Hop Notes my inbox is open 24/7: ericsannerud@gmail.com.