Hop Notes 02: Five Trends to watch in 2023
Expert analysis to help you make better hop decisions.
‘Tis the season for prediction content. We all like these posed as hot takes. So here are five hot(-ish) takes I have for 2023. I’ll keep score and report back to you next year.
Take One: More new hop varieties will be released.
Acreage listed ‘Experimental’ and ‘Other’ in the annual USDA Hop Report continues to grow. At the same time we see new varietal releases trending away from rapid naming and release, opting to keep experimental numbers on varieties for longer to build mystique and brewer interest without (and before) making the significant investment in branding and naming. Recent examples of this trend include HBC 586, NZH 101/102, YQH-1320.
I wonder how many craft beer consumers will be able to remember hop “XYZ-123” and how much lower the potential sales bump is for numbered but unnamed hops compared to fully released names like Talus®️ or Helios™️.
You’d be forgiven for thinking “Gee, how many new hops can I even keep track of?". For the number of experimental hops being promoted, I don’t imagine most brewers have the capacity to get to know them all in their day to day. Those headwinds make me think this train of new varietal introduction will start to slow down, but probably not in 2023- there are just too many coming down the ~10 year variety development pipeline.
Take Two: Hop stocks continue to be high, a supply-side adjustment is coming.
You could make this prediction every year. Looking at annual production, annual hop stock reports, and the recent softening of craft beer demand, 2023 might just be the year.
Using 2022 USDA reports there are somewhere around 130,000,000 lbs of excess hop stock in the United States. 2023 could be the year where we see a concerted effort by industry players to cut production in order to support currently strong hop prices. That cut? Probably in proprietaries, for a few reasons:
1. Owners of proprietary hops have direct control over acreage through IP agreements. Much easier for the industry to make changes to varieties they own than comparatively wild and free public acres.
2. Proprietaries make up the majority of acreage and pounds on the oversupplied market. If a reduction is to come then it makes sense it will hit the largest varieties first.
If this happens there are a lot of potential impacts. Farmer decision making will shift, hop varietal availability will shift, and merchant positions will shift. The US hop market has been oriented around the Northstar of proprietary varieties for almost a decade, even a small change in that influence would ripple out in big ways.
I will be watching to see how large the cut is, how the acreage cuts are handed out and to what farms, if this will mean farmers idle these acres, replace the acres, or remove the acres, if this will change farmers’ planting decisions re: proprietary varieties vs public varieties, and if any of this attempt to slow oversupply will affect hop pricing and hop farm consolidation. What is clear: the ramifications of any supply side reduction would be huge for the state of the industry.
Take Three: Vista will break the barrier and make it onto the named varieties list of the USDA Hop Report in 2023.
Released in 2022 Vista is the latest public hop release and has more steam behind it than other recent public releases. For example, Triumph first made the named list in 2020 for 14.2 acres in ID, two years after release. Cashmere, released in 2013, didn’t make the named list until 2017. Vista has had good market traction and was lucky to be released after the initial shock of COVID. Making it in 1 year seems possible.
Vista features aroma notes of melon, stone fruit, and tropical. I have noticed a meaningful distinction between WA, OR, ID and other State grown Vista. (Could it be terroir?) For example, WA Vista defines those notes above. ID Vista is much heavier on tropical notes. As a public hop, Vista is widely grown outside of the PNW as well, check with your local hop farmers for some near you. If you try some Vista and don’t like the character, don’t give up, seek some from another region!
If you haven’t tried Vista yet, here’s a catalog of sellers with Vista available.
Take Four: Waylon Jennings said it first; “Citra®️ is still the king”.
Despite any potential hop acreage reductions, Citra®️ will likely continue to be the acre leader in American hop farming and the number one name-brand hop on craft beer cans across the country.
At this point, Citra®️ hopped beers are a meme. It feels like more beers have Citra®️ in them than not. Especially IPAs. Despite what some of us in the industry may feel about Citra®️ being overplayed, overused, or just boring, she’s the top hop on the shelves.
Take Five: Advanced hop products will continue to increase market share.
There is no public reporting about the form of hop sales in America each year. Anecdotally, I’ve heard that advanced hop products constitute 30% or more of the overall American hop demand. This tracks with limited public information dropped in supplier interviews. The success and continued investment in enriched hop pellet brands ((Cryo®️ chief among them (no pun intended)) and the growing number of 2nd generation hop extract products in the market that do more than bitter (Incognito®️ and Salvo™️ for example) shows the energy in the advanced hop product category.
One segment of the advanced hop product category to watch moving forward is hop oil extracts. Hop oil extract products currently on the market are C02 extracted using machinery primarily used in bulk hemp or cannabis extractions and/or steam distilled. Examples include Hopzoil™️, Oast House Oils, and Totally Natural Solutions. This segment is the youngest in the advanced hop product category and has a lot of space for further innovation and brewer adoption.
Advanced hop products are poised for continued growth. In general these products require less energy to transport, meaningfully improve beer yields, and deliver similar or greater hop intensity compared to traditional T90 pellets. Trends in craft beer towards more competition, tighter margins, and a more socially-aware consumer line up well with these product benefits.
More hop content:
Yakima Chief Hops announced a new partnership with NZ Hops Ltd (a cooperative of New Zealand hop growers). Plans include introducing Cryo®️ versions of big time NZ varieties including NZ Hops Ltd’s crown jewel Nectaron®️.
Following up from Hop Note 01’s shout out to Hop Queries, consider also adding The McKinnon Report to your hop reading list. The most recent McKinnon Report dives deep into the potential start of a new cycle in the hop market.
NA beer is in the news and this BarthHaas blog on the interaction of various hop compounds in beer liquid with varying levels of alcohol is a good read.
The 2023 Cascade Cup went to Billy Goat Hop Farm of Montrose, Colorado. The first non-PNW farm to take home the honor.
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That’s all for now. If you have topics you’d like to read about in Hop Notes my inbox is open 24/7: ericsannerud@gmail.com.